The elections of 2016 and 2018 have provided concrete benchmarks on how the major political parties will fight over voter enthusiasm, ballot access and LGBT issues in November 2020.
In Iowa, where 1.9 million people cast ballots in the 2018 general election, the polls show an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans.
Although the results were close, an Emerson College poll released in December showed 66% of Iowa Republicans and 70% of Iowa Democrats described their party’s candidate as a “great or very good candidate.” The poll had a 4.3-point margin of error.
Democrats were far less satisfied with their candidate, with 61% describing him or her as a “great or very good candidate,” compared with 55% of Republicans. Republicans were even less satisfied with their party’s candidate, a gap of 21 percentage points.
Claire King’s defeat of incumbent Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds in the 2018 election in this liberal state was a harbinger of the Democratic win in the House last month, which has provided a boost for the 2020 campaign.