Odds provided by North American Book Trade Association and Predictable Financial.
In these final days of campaigning, political handicappers have been dealing with heated rhetoric and close, sometimes razor-thin, races for the few remaining available delegates in more than three dozen state primaries and caucuses. Since early June, the Democrats have seen fewer competitive races than the Republicans in the Senate and House, but they remain highly unpredictable.
Looking ahead to Super Tuesday and beyond, here are the most likely candidates for the nomination:
MARYLAND — Hillary Clinton is the odds-on favorite to win in the state, where she won in 2008 and where Sanders — her top competitor in the Democratic race — won in 2016. Sanders has fared better here than Clinton, but his strategy of targeting states that vote on a later date has not paid off in February, when delegates are awarded on a proportional basis.
KENTUCKY — The state Trump won in 2016 has remained a tough race for him, despite his dominating victories in the South. Trump has done worse in Kentucky than Mitt Romney and John McCain in 2012 and 2012. Clinton, who carried the state in 2016, is expected to make up a significant delegate deficit when the vote is held on Tuesday.
UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI — Clinton and Sanders waged a close race in the state in 2016, with Sanders leading when superdelegates were counted. Trump has campaigned there more heavily than most of his opponents, and he’s very likely to win.
CONNECTICUT — The winner-take-all state has been in good shape for Democrats all cycle, with Sanders and Clinton both taking more than 70 percent of the vote two years ago. Sanders is the favorite, but Clinton will take away more delegates than Sanders.
VERMONT — Sanders, who won the state in 2016, probably doesn’t need the advantage there. He needs to cut into Clinton’s lead in New England.
CONNECTICUT — Trump won the neighboring state in 2016, but he is less popular there than he is in Connecticut. Clinton is the favorite.
WISCONSIN — Again, Sanders won the state in 2016, but this year he is heavily favored. Clinton won the state in 2016.
MASSACHUSETTS — Sanders carried the state in 2016, and he might win again on Tuesday. But Clinton has won more endorsements and more popular support here than Sanders, who began spending his time in the state just days after Sanders began, thanks to redistricting that resulted in changes in the voting district maps for the two parties. Trump won the state in 2016.
NEW HAMPSHIRE — Sanders carried the state in 2016, and Trump lost here to Hillary Clinton by double digits two years ago. But Sanders lost by a significant margin in Massachusetts, and Clinton may win anyway, because New Hampshire has typically been a reliable conservative state. Sanders and Clinton have been in the running in this state for most of the season.
NEW JERSEY — Both candidates lost New Jersey in 2016, with Trump handily winning the primary, and Sanders beating Hillary Clinton by less than 3 percentage points. It is one of the few states where the candidates have spent time competing in recent weeks.
WASHINGTON STATE — Sanders lost the state to Clinton in 2016, but he has not been competitive in the state since.
TEXAS — Sanders has twice run neck-and-neck in Texas with Hillary Clinton. But there are many more delegates up for grabs this time. Clinton is favored, but there could be a fight.