Written by Steve McAnon, CNN
Donald Trump can very well be headed for a second term as US President. A new CNN/ORC Poll shows that if you're asked whether you would vote for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in 2020, Clinton would likely get your vote -- 40% to 34% -- if the election were held today.
And those numbers have remained stable since December.
There's been a similar pattern among women, Trump supporters and black and Hispanic voters, CNN's Poll of Polls shows.
The only group of voters that has shown real movement in the last month is independent voters, according to CNN's polling data.
If only white voters were taken into account, when all other groups combined, Trump would indeed be leading Clinton, if the election were held today. That number is 48% to 42%, a slight lead, according to the CNN Poll of Polls
As for whether Trump's election actually has led to tangible improvements in the economy, that's another story.
The latest estimate is that the "jobs gap" between Republicans and Democrats hit a record high of 3.2 million jobs in 2016 -- something the CNN Poll of Polls says played an important role in the 2016 election results.
CNN's Poll of Polls suggest the "jobs gap" has narrowed somewhat since November, a result CNN's polling chief says may be misleading.
The latest government figures put the level of jobs gap at just 2.5 million. However, various surveys show the majority of these jobs have gone to blacks and Hispanics.
Both CNN's Poll of Polls and a separate "jobs gap" analysis done by Ohio State University show that minority voters, especially black voters, are the most susceptible to a recession: 75% of black voters and 62% of Hispanic voters say that black men will be worse off in 10 years when compared to male black men in 2000.
The current point of all this?
If Trump comes back to win the next election, the likely result will be -- more to the point -- the same.
There will be more jobs, and there will be more unemployment.
Unlike most politicians, Trump is one who wouldn't necessarily try to reverse that.
Instead, he'd most likely take office with the goal of governing as a plutocrat, and continuing the wealthy's drive for global dominance.
The fact is that if anyone is to blame for the fact that inequality and poverty are at record levels in the US, it's not Trump. It's rather the long-term shift toward global capitalism on his watch that led to this mess in the first place.
When a billionaire assembles a government, it's only a matter of time before inequality starts getting worse.